Cotton prices in 2022 face both upward and downward pressure, so the National Cotton Council recently made a cautious forecast for this year’s Cotton price, listing a number of key factors affecting Cotton prices. On the one hand, cotton is likely to be driven by higher commodity and raw material prices, a tightening of the United States balance sheet, supply chain disruptions, speculative capital flows and rising demand. On the other hand, however, additional restrictions related to the new crown outbreak, a slowdown in global economic activity and continued low synthetic fiber prices could put downward pressure on cotton prices. Global cotton production is expected to increase to 122.6 million bales by 2022 as a result of increased cotton acreage, said Dr. Jody Campiche, vice president for economic and policy analysis at the American Cotton Association. World cotton mill usage is expected to increase to 125 million bales by 2022, which means global cotton demand will reach an all-time high. Global cotton trade is expected to increase to 48.3 million bales as the consumption of cotton by major importing countries continues to increase.
The 2021 exported about 13.8 million bales of cotton, 950,000 bales less than the United States Department of Agriculture estimated in February 2022. While cotton export sales in the United States for the 2021 sales year have remained strong so far, weekly shipments are well behind the five-year average. In addition to supply disruptions and delays caused by transport problems, cotton shipments in the first months of the 2021 were also affected by supply shortages. As of February 3, U.S. cotton exports had reached 13 million bales, with 4.5 million bales shipped. Shipments are 3.2 m fewer than last year and 1.1 m fewer than the five-year average. It will take an average of 370,000 packs a week to reach 13.8 m packs by July 31, slightly above the five year average. The United States cotton surplus is expected to increase to 4.4 million bales, 1.2 million more than in the previous year, as exports decline in 2021.